Why re-examine VAT 4956
Content last updated: 4th September 2023 18:13 (UTC)What we did before
One initial reasons that VAT4956.com was started, was because the reign of Nebuchadnezzar is supported by 9 (out of only 14) eclipses that could not have been predicted without some sort of scheme. There has been much written about this subject, and scholars have satisfied themselves with a solution. The solution is only conjecture, because no Babylonian scheme has been recovered to date.
The table below shows the problematical predictions during Nebuchadnezzar's reign, it illustrates why a eclipse prediction scheme is needed.
| Synodic Months | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6 | 12 | 47 | 135 | 223 | ||
| 1 | -603 Jun 13 | -603 Jan 16 | -604 Dec 17 | -604 Jun 23 | -607 Aug 24 | -614 Jul 14 | -621 Jun 02 |
| 2 | -603 Dec 06 | -603 Jul 12 | -603 Jun 13 | -604 Dec 17 | -606 Feb 18 | -613 Jan 07 | -621 Nov 26 |
| 3 | -599 Mar 31 | -600 Nov 04 | -600 Oct 05 | -600 Apr 11 | -603 Jun 13 | -610 May 01 | -617 Mar 21 |
| 4 | -599 Sep 24 | -599 Mar 31 | -599 Feb 19 | -600 Oct 05 | -603 Dec 06 | -610 Oct 26 | -617 Sep 14 |
| 5 | -592 May 12 | -593 Dec 16 | -593 Nov 17 | -593 May 23 | -596 Jul 24 | -603 Jun 13 | -610 May 01 |
| 6 | -592 Nov 05 | -593 Jun 11 | -592 May 12 | -593 Nov 17 | -595 Jan 17 | -603 Dec 06 | -610 Oct 26 |
| 7 | -588 Feb 29 | -589 Oct 05 | -589 Sep 04 | -589 Mar 12 | -592 May 12 | -599 Mar 31 | -606 Feb 18 |
| 8 | -577 Jan 28 | -598 Sep 03 | -578 Aug 04 | -578 Feb 08 | -581 Apr 12 | -588 Feb 29 | -595 Jan 17 |
| 9 | -567 Jul 04 | -567 Feb 06 | -567 Jan 07 | -568 Jul 15 | -571 Sep 14 | -578 Aug 04 | -585 Jun 24 |
Additionally, the intercalary months during Nebuchadnezzar's reign didn't seem to coincide with the natural pattern in the stars. This is important because the purpose of an intercalary month was to keep the lunar year inline with the solar year. Although it's not a major issue, it still begs the question, why?
We wondered if VAT4956 could be dated to another year. In order to find which years were candidates the following two events were selected:
- an acronychal rising of any planet on the 11th or 12th day during the first month
- an eclipse that was not visible 65-66 days after the acronychal rising.
Using the first criteria and accounting for the possibility of intercalary months the following years were identified:
- 628 BC
- 588 BC
- 568 BC
- 557 BC
- 544 BC
- 541 BC
The second criteria narrowed the search to just two years 588 BC and 568 BC.
Critical Opposition. Why?
We set about making a comparison between these two years. Since all scholarly sources support the generally accepted dating for VAT4956 as 568 BC, we looked at how the data on the tablet could fit 588 BC. This was met with much opposition, most of which was motivated by people critical of just one religion, Jehovah's witnesses. (This debate is not unique to just one religion, check these links: Link 1 Link 2 Link 3). The dating of Nebuchadnezzar's reign determines when ancient Jerusalem and it's temple was destroyed by him. The following record from the Bible is used to determine this date:
On the seventh day of the fifth month, in the nineteenth year of Nebuchadnezzar king of Babylon, Nebuzaradan commander of the imperial guard, an official of the king of Babylon, came to Jerusalem. He set fire to the temple of the Lord, the royal palace and all the houses of Jerusalem. Every important building he burned down.
-2 Kings 25:8-9 - New International Version
The interpretation of how long the captives from Jerusalem were in Babylon seems to be the issue. For example several Bible verses say something along the lines of:
In the first year of Darius son of Xerxes (a Mede by descent), who was made ruler over the Babylonian kingdom— in the first year of his reign, I, Daniel, understood from the Scriptures, according to the word of the Lord given to Jeremiah the prophet, that the desolation of Jerusalem would last seventy years.
-Daniel 9:1-2 - New International Version
This period of time seems to be supported by tradition, Josephus reports:
By which means all Judea and Jerusalem, and the temple, continued to be a desert for seventy years - Flavius Josephus (c. 100AD) Antiquities of the Jews — Book X
...what proved to be true: that “They did ill, and deluded the King; that the Egyptians would be of no advantage to them; but that the King of Babylon would renew the war against Jerusalem, and besiege it again, and would destroy the people by famine; and carry away those that remained into captivity; and would take away what they had as spoils, and would carry off those riches that were in the temple. Nay that, besides this, he would burn it, and utterly overthrow the city; and that they should serve him and his posterity seventy years." - Flavius Josephus (c. 100AD) Antiquities of the Jews — Book X
The generally accepted date for the destruction of Jerusalem and its Temple is 587/6 BC, this only allows for a 50 year captivity for those taken last from Jerusalem. As can be seen from the links above, religious people try different ways to reconcile the 50 years between 587/6 BC and the fall of the Babylonian empire, with the 70 years mentioned in the Bible.
Jehovah's Witnesses simply take the year it was decreed the captives could return, and go back 70 years to 607 BC. Interestingly, this would mean that VAT4956 would need to be dated to 588 BC, the only other year our criteria above selected.
Not wanting to get into a religious debate we will not consider any other information from religious sources for the time being, even though much information and dates about Nebuchadnezzar's reign is gleaned from the Bible.
Prompted Change...
We then changed how we approached the tablet. instead we tried to prove beyond doubt that VAT4956 was dated correctly to 568 BC. Since the astronomical data from Ptolemy's canon of kings, vat4956, LBAT*1420 seem to harmonise despite the reservations about the eclipses mentioned above. What was discovered has changed our stance on VAT4956. Consider the following:
No Provenance
It is no secret that VAT4956 has no provenance, this can be seen from the following quote:
The fragment was acquired from antiquities dealers and excavated unscientifically, most likely in Babylon, near the end of the nineteenth century
- Mathieu Ossendrijver (2016), Translating Babylonian Astronomical Diaries and Procedure Texts
VAT 4956 appeared several decades after cuneiform was deciphered in 1857, during the climate described below:
Fake objects and fake translations reappeared with the rediscovery of the ancient script, even before its decipherment. Once the first official excavations began in Iraq in the mid-nineteenth century CE and the cuneiform writing that was found was deciphered, collectors started to take an increasing interest in Mesopotamian antiquities, resulting in a large number of fakes in order to meet the demand for such items. The techniques employed in order to produce fakes improved, and more and more fakes began to be bought – by private collectors and public museums alike. . .
During the nineteenth century, the production of fakes exploded as collecting relics of the past became a general interest. This collecting mania encouraged the forgers to meet the demand for cuneiform artefacts by producing even more forgeries. Large quantities of cuneiform tablets were shipped to Europe and North America in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, genuine and forged ones being mixed together. This increasing interest in antiquities was concomitant to the decipherment of cuneiform.
- Cécile Michel (2020) - Cuneiform Fakes: A Long History from Antiquity to the Present Day PDF
It is not known where the tablet was excavated or how it was acquired by the antiquities dealer. This alone is enough to dismiss the tablet entirely. There is no way to prove that the tablet is not a fake. Yet, it is accepted by scholars as a genuine artefact. It may well have been buried for centuries, somewhere near Babylon. However, it seems that fake and forgeries were a problem in ancient times too. Consider the following:
There are many attestations of suspected forgeries in the cuneiform sources, which means that these are likely to have existed
- Cécile Michel (2020) - Cuneiform Fakes: A Long History from Antiquity to the Present Day PDF
There is no way to determine if the historical information on the tablet actually happened when the astronomical data was recorded. Notice what is acknowledged on the NASA eclipse website:
The inclusion of an historical event . . . does not imply validation of the historical event nor its connection with an eclipse. Some events may be either apocryphal or fictional, or an eclipse may be incorrectly associated with a particular event
- Fred Espenak - NASA Eclipse web site
Here it is accepted that just because an artefact can be linked to an astronomical event, doesn't mean that any historical event that is linked with it is automatically proven.
The problem of fakes and forgeries still hasn't gone away, read blog.britishmuseum.org about fakes as recent as 2019
Having no provenance and the existence of an abundance of fakes and forgeries, for all we know it could have been produced in modern times to validate Ptolemy's Canon of Kings. A quick internet search will find a number of fakes and forgeries around the nineteenth century in other scholarly fields (Kensington runestone, Piltdown man, Crystal Skulls). This however, is not how scholars consider cuneiform texts that have no provenance:
The large number of astronomical tablets recovered from Babylon reflect a much greater diversity of date and content than the Assyrian texts. Unfortunately there is no archaeological record for the discovery of these texts; most were in fact bought by the British Museum from Baghdad antique dealers, and even those that were recovered from excavations made on behalf of the Museum by H. Rassam at around the turn of the ... century [1900] were not systematically recorded. Nevertheless, it is clear from other evidence - the fact that other tablets contained in the same museum collections have their provenance expressly mentioned, the character of the personal names which appear in the colophons, and the particular deities mentioned in the introductory invocations (Sach 1948) - that they all originate from either Babylon or the neighbouring city of Borsippa. Furthermore, there is no difference in style between the fifty or so astronomical texts excavated by Rassam at Babylon, and those of uncertain provenance.
- Steele, John Michael (1998), Observations and predictions of eclipse times by astronomers in the pre-telescopic period.
Whilst the above quote is not dealing specifically with VAT 4956, can the argument be made that because it is similar in style to texts that have provenance it must be genuine? A close inspection of the tablet will reveal many unique features. Although it is thought to be a copy made several centuries later when the names of stars and constellations had been "standardised" it still retains its uniqueness. Whether this is due to the copyist not understanding the original text in order to "standardise" it, or simply copying it verbatim, it is impossible to know.
For a fake or forgery to go undetected is has to be plausibly similar to what it is faking, otherwise it would be easily identified.
Focusing on the lack of provenance of the tablet is not an attempt to discredit and dismiss it. It is important to understand the facts. The simple truth is that in a court of Law, an anonymous text, from an unknown source would not be considered evidence. Some courts, however, do accept the testimony of experts and in the case of VAT 4956 experts or scholars accept it as genuine.
The purpose of this site is to consider the available sources of information, both those that support and conflict with the generally accepted dating of VAT 4956. This is important because depending on your bias, you may readily accept VAT 4956 as genuine knowing that it has no provenance, but at the same time reject conflicting sources for the very same reason.
Moon Nodes
The reign of Nebuchadnezzar II has been fixed in history by Ptolemy's Canon of kings, VAT4956 and the eclipse tablet LBAT 1420. The principal factor in these is the lunar eclipse. Whether or not a lunar eclipse occurs depends on the position of the lunar node in relation to the Sun and Earth. (see ecliptic limits)
The accuracy of each of these eclipses can be checked with astronomical software, the results are exactly as one would expect. The eclipses happen almost exactly as they have been recorded. This is considered to be "positive proof" a "fact" even. This is because the moon cycle is well known by astronomers. The variations of each lunation can be calculated with very small margins of error. However, this isn't entirely true, in a readme file for Steve Moshier's aa-56.zip he says:
The true accuracy of positions calculated for prehistoric or future dates is of course unknown. The Moon's position is calculated by a modified version of the lunar theory of Chapront-Touze' and Chapront. This has a precision of 0.5 arc second relative to DE404 for all dates between 1369 B.C. and 3000 A.D. The real position of the Moon in ancient times is not actually known this accurately, due to uncertainty in the tidal acceleration of the Moon's orbit.
- Steve Moshier
The Six Millennium Catalog of Phases of the Moon by Fred Espenak (the NASA eclipse guy) shows that the moon has pretty much behaved the way it should, for a very long time. There being no anomalies in the length of lunar months etc. This means one can be confident that the generally accepted date of Nebuchadnezzar's reign is indisputable.
There is a certain amount of flexibility, with the adjustment of ΔT. This has been used to move the position of Earth to make eclipses match what was observed in ancient times.
Maybe one problem is that scholars and astronomers have put too much stock in Ptolemy's canon of kings. It has been used as a reliable source and a framework for the period for a long time. Below is a chart of the nodal period of the moon (18.61 years) over a period of 3,111 years. When the information was collated, it seemed that for no apparent reason that the node moved more than -3° (red text) on three occasions. When we took an average of 10 cycles, a pattern emerged that lasted nearly 1,000 years. Have a look at the pattern (in blue) and how it becomes truncated around the time of Nebuchadnezzar II. The reason for the lunar node moving more than -3° became apparent. If you wanted to make eclipses fit where they don't naturally, this would affect where the lunar nodes are. Since "the real position of the Moon in ancient times is not actually known this accurately" what accounts for the disruption in the nodal cycle? Why does this disruption occur at the exact period in history that is disputed?
Does this affect the reliability of the supporting evidence for VAT 4956?
| Date & Time (UTC+3) | JD | ΔT | ° Longitude | ° Latitude | ° Decimal | ° Difference | 10 cycle average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2022-03-08 11:20:36 | 2459646.84760 | 00:01:12 | 54° 50' 02'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 54.8339 | -0.1219 | 54.6713 * |
| 2 | 2003-07-23 21:45:55 | 2452844.28190 | 00:01:05 | 57° 33' 40'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 57.5611 | -2.7272 | 55.1361 * |
| 3 | 1984-12-07 01:30:25 | 2446041.43780 | 00:00:54 | 57° 28' 13'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 57.4703 | 0.0908 | 55.6409 * |
| 4 | 1966-04-22 22:50:28 | 2439238.32670 | 00:00:37 | 55° 21' 04'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 55.3511 | 2.1192 | 55.6516 * |
| 5 | 1947-09-06 22:36:33 | 2432435.31710 | 00:00:28 | 56° 13' 30'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 56.2250 | -0.8739 | 55.6917 * |
| 6 | 1929-01-20 22:15:40 | 2425632.30250 | 00:00:24 | 58° 31' 22'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 58.5228 | -2.2978 | 56.1700 * |
| 7 | 1910-06-06 11:50:56 | 2418828.86870 | 00:00:11 | 58° 14' 32'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 58.2422 | 0.2806 | 56.5831 * |
| 8 | 1891-10-19 21:23:41 | 2412025.26640 | -0:00:06 | 56° 25' 54'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 56.4317 | 1.8106 | 56.5885 * |
| 9 | 1873-03-04 17:44:07 | 2405222.11400 | -0:00:02 | 57° 06' 03'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 57.1008 | -0.6692 | 56.6451 * |
| 10 | 1854-07-20 00:59:00 | 2398419.41600 | 00:00:08 | 59° 53' 57'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 59.8992 | -2.7983 | 57.1638 |
| 11 | 1835-12-04 05:55:31 | 2391616.62190 | 00:00:06 | 59° 18' 30'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 59.3083 | 0.5908 | 57.6113 |
| 12 | 1817-04-19 08:12:42 | 2384813.71720 | 00:00:12 | 57° 06' 15'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 57.1042 | 2.2042 | 57.5656 |
| 13 | 1798-09-02 14:56:38 | 2378010.99770 | 00:00:14 | 58° 19' 14'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 58.3206 | -1.2164 | 57.6506 |
| 14 | 1780-01-17 18:30:37 | 2371208.14630 | 00:00:17 | 60° 39' 19'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 60.6553 | -2.3347 | 58.1810 |
| 15 | 1761-06-02 08:36:46 | 2364404.73390 | 00:00:15 | 60° 07' 30'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 60.1250 | 0.5303 | 58.5710 |
| 16 | 1742-10-16 17:32:43 | 2357601.10610 | 00:00:12 | 58° 24' 11'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 58.4031 | 1.7219 | 58.5590 |
| 17 | 1724-03-01 11:44:37 | 2350797.86430 | 00:00:11 | 59° 15' 58'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 59.2661 | -0.8631 | 58.6614 |
| 18 | 1705-07-16 13:22:50 | 2343994.93250 | 00:00:09 | 61° 53' 05'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 61.8847 | -2.6186 | 59.2067 |
| 19 | 1686-11-29 12:21:31 | 2337191.88990 | 00:00:11 | 61° 03' 40'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 61.0611 | 0.8236 | 59.6028 |
| 20 | 1668-04-14 11:46:05 | 2330388.86530 | 00:00:28 | 59° 08' 40'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 59.1444 | 1.9167 | 59.5273 |
| 21 | 1649-08-29 19:48:54 | 2323586.20060 | 00:00:48 | 60° 44' 21'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 60.7392 | -1.5947 | 59.6704 |
| 22 | 1631-01-14 03:58:37 | 2316783.54070 | 00:01:22 | 62° 42' 00'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 62.7000 | -1.9608 | 60.2299 |
| 23 | 1612-05-30 00:38:05 | 2309980.40140 | 00:01:46 | 61° 46' 50'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 61.7806 | 0.9194 | 60.5759 |
| Telescope invented 1608 | ||||||||
| 24 | 1593-10-13 16:38:49 | 2303177.06860 | 00:02:03 | 60° 20' 11'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 60.3364 | 1.4442 | 60.5441 |
| 25 | 1575-02-17 14:16:36 | 2296373.96990 | 00:02:14 | 61° 30' 10'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 61.5028 | -1.1664 | 60.6818 |
| 26 | 1556-07-03 11:28:40 | 2289570.85320 | 00:02:27 | 63° 47' 36'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 63.7933 | -2.2906 | 61.2209 |
| 27 | 1537-11-17 01:46:19 | 2282767.44880 | 00:02:42 | 62° 36' 41'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 62.6114 | 1.1819 | 61.5554 |
| 28 | 1519-04-02 17:42:49 | 2275964.11310 | 00:02:59 | 61° 04' 43'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 61.0786 | 1.5328 | 61.4748 |
| 29 | 1500-08-16 21:31:05 | 2269161.27160 | 00:03:18 | 63° 17' 32'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 63.2922 | -2.2136 | 61.6979 |
| 30 | 1482-01-01 06:47:04 | 2262358.65770 | 00:03:38 | 64° 54' 36'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 64.9100 | -1.6178 | 62.2744 |
| 31 | 1463-05-18 09:23:58 | 2255555.76660 | 00:03:59 | 63° 25' 01'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 63.4169 | 1.4931 | 62.5422 |
| 32 | 1444-10-01 10:12:15 | 2248752.80020 | 00:04:22 | 62° 07' 35'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 62.1264 | 1.2906 | 62.4849 |
| 33 | 1426-02-15 14:12:07 | 2241949.96680 | 00:04:46 | 63° 41' 56'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 63.6989 | -1.5725 | 62.6767 |
| 34 | 1407-07-02 11:02:29 | 2235146.83510 | 00:05:11 | 65° 52' 16'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 65.8711 | -2.1722 | 63.2302 |
| 35 | 1388-11-14 20:56:46 | 2228343.24780 | 00:05:38 | 64° 23' 51'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 64.3975 | 1.4736 | 63.5196 |
| 36 | 1370-03-31 08:22:02 | 2221539.72360 | 00:06:07 | 63° 00' 30'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 63.0083 | 1.3892 | 63.4411 |
| 37 | 1351-08-15 07:14:42 | 2214736.67690 | 00:06:37 | 65° 35' 17'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 65.5881 | -2.5797 | 63.7388 |
| 38 | 1332-12-29 12:21:24 | 2207933.88990 | 00:07:09 | 67° 01' 16'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 67.0211 | -1.4331 | 64.3331 |
| 39 | 1314-05-15 13:53:58 | 2201130.95410 | 00:07:44 | 65° 17' 08'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 65.2856 | 1.7356 | 64.5324 |
| 40 | 1295-09-29 17:38:48 | 2194328.11030 | 00:08:21 | 64° 13' 39'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 64.2275 | 1.0581 | 64.4641 |
| 41 | 1277-02-13 02:40:04 | 2187525.48620 | 00:09:00 | 65° 57' 18'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 65.9550 | -1.7275 | 64.7179 |
| 42 | 1258-06-30 03:54:03 | 2180722.53750 | 00:09:42 | 67° 48' 48'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 67.8133 | -1.8583 | 65.2866 |
| 43 | 1239-11-13 17:10:26 | 2173919.09060 | 00:10:28 | 66° 14' 56'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 66.2489 | 1.5644 | 65.5416 |
| 44 | 1221-03-29 07:17:59 | 2167115.67920 | 00:11:17 | 65° 07' 37'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 65.1269 | 1.1219 | 65.4672 |
| 45 | 1202-08-13 04:55:41 | 2160312.58030 | 00:12:09 | 67° 45' 21'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 67.7558 | -2.6289 | 65.8031 |
| 46 | 1183-12-28 03:10:39 | 2153509.50740 | 00:13:05 | 68° 47' 22'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 68.7894 | -1.0336 | 66.3812 |
| 47 | 1165-05-12 20:54:15 | 2146706.24600 | 00:14:05 | 67° 00' 42'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 67.0117 | 1.7778 | 66.5235 |
| 48 | 1146-09-26 19:53:18 | 2139903.20370 | 00:15:09 | 66° 34' 00'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 66.5667 | 0.4450 | 66.4781 |
| 49 | 1128-02-11 05:17:39 | 2133100.59560 | 00:16:17 | 68° 29' 27'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 68.4908 | -1.9242 | 66.7986 |
| 50 | 1109-06-27 11:48:14 | 2126297.86680 | 00:17:30 | 69° 40' 50'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 69.6806 | -1.1897 | 67.3439 |
| 51 | 1090-11-11 09:03:54 | 2119494.75270 | 00:18:47 | 67° 50' 44'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 67.8456 | 1.8350 | 67.5330 |
| 52 | 1072-03-27 07:03:45 | 2112691.66930 | 00:20:10 | 67° 08' 16'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 67.1378 | 0.7078 | 67.4654 |
| 53 | 1053-08-11 07:33:16 | 2105888.68980 | 00:21:37 | 70° 00' 40'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 70.0111 | -2.8733 | 67.8416 |
| 54 | 1034-12-26 00:52:15 | 2099085.41130 | 00:23:08 | 70° 38' 13'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 70.6369 | -0.6258 | 68.3926 |
| 55 | 1016-05-10 10:56:29 | 2092281.83090 | 00:24:45 | 68° 40' 15'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 68.6708 | 1.9661 | 68.4841 |
| 56 | 0997-09-24 02:57:41 | 2085478.49840 | 00:26:27 | 68° 45' 19'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 68.7553 | -0.0844 | 68.4807 |
| 57 | 0979-02-08 08:26:21 | 2078675.72660 | 00:28:13 | 71° 00' 57'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 71.0158 | -2.2606 | 68.8811 |
| 58 | 0960-06-24 15:20:58 | 2071873.01460 | 00:30:05 | 71° 43' 18'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 71.7217 | -0.7058 | 69.3966 |
| 59 | 0941-11-08 17:23:07 | 2065070.09940 | 00:32:01 | 69° 35' 24'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 69.5900 | 2.1317 | 69.5066 |
| 60 | 0923-03-25 22:14:55 | 2058267.30200 | 00:34:03 | 69° 09' 01'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 69.1503 | 0.4397 | 69.4535 |
| 61 | 0904-08-09 03:50:40 | 2051464.53520 | 00:36:08 | 72° 13' 22'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 72.2228 | -3.0725 | 69.8913 |
| 62 | 0885-12-23 21:43:37 | 2044661.28030 | 00:38:19 | 72° 38' 25'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 72.6403 | -0.4175 | 70.4415 |
| 63 | 0867-05-09 06:52:59 | 2037857.66180 | 00:40:34 | 70° 35' 28'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 70.5911 | 2.0492 | 70.4995 |
| 64 | 0848-09-21 20:55:32 | 2031054.24690 | 00:42:53 | 70° 56' 40'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 70.9444 | -0.3533 | 70.5303 |
| 65 | 0830-02-05 21:44:37 | 2024251.28100 | 00:45:16 | 73° 11' 36'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 73.1933 | -2.2489 | 70.9825 |
| 66 | 0811-06-22 22:32:19 | 2017448.31410 | 00:47:43 | 73° 35' 22'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 73.5894 | -0.3961 | 71.4659 |
| 67 | 0792-11-05 21:16:58 | 2010645.26180 | 00:50:14 | 71° 34' 06'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 71.5683 | 2.0211 | 71.5212 |
| 68 | 0774-03-23 02:53:36 | 2003842.49560 | 00:52:48 | 71° 32' 02'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 71.5339 | 0.0344 | 71.5024 |
| 69 | 0755-08-07 12:43:49 | 1997039.90540 | 00:55:26 | 74° 26' 52'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 74.4478 | -2.9139 | 71.9882 |
| 70 | 0736-12-21 12:11:39 | 1990236.88310 | 00:58:06 | 74° 24' 51'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 74.4142 | 0.0336 | 72.5146 |
| 71 | 0718-05-07 03:50:06 | 1983433.53480 | 01:00:50 | 72° 27' 06'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 72.4517 | 1.9625 | 72.5374 |
| 72 | 0699-09-20 22:47:48 | 1976630.32490 | 01:03:36 | 73° 13' 35'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 73.2264 | -0.7747 | 72.5961 |
| 73 | 0681-02-03 21:24:33 | 1969827.26700 | 01:06:24 | 75° 18' 15'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 75.3042 | -2.0778 | 73.0674 |
| 74 | 0662-06-20 13:43:49 | 1963023.94710 | 01:09:14 | 75° 14' 34'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 75.2428 | 0.0614 | 73.4972 |
| 75 | 0643-11-04 04:08:01 | 1956220.54720 | 01:12:07 | 73° 24' 16'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 73.4044 | 1.8383 | 73.5183 |
| 76 | 0625-03-20 04:53:08 | 1949417.57860 | 01:15:01 | 74° 01' 55'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 74.0319 | -0.6275 | 73.5626 |
| 77 | 0606-08-04 14:49:02 | 1942614.99240 | 01:17:57 | 76° 51' 39'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 76.8608 | -2.8289 | 74.0918 |
| 78 | 0587-12-19 19:17:32 | 1935812.17880 | 01:20:54 | 76° 10' 24'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 76.1733 | 0.6875 | 74.5558 |
| 79 | 0569-05-04 19:07:51 | 1929009.17210 | 01:23:53 | 74° 09' 21'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 74.1558 | 2.0175 | 74.5266 |
| 80 | 0550-09-18 22:05:28 | 1922206.29550 | 01:26:53 | 75° 24' 22'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 75.4061 | -1.2503 | 74.6258 |
| 81 | 0532-02-02 22:10:27 | 1915403.29890 | 01:29:54 | 77° 33' 10'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 77.5528 | -2.1467 | 75.1359 |
| 82 | 0513-06-18 10:04:40 | 1908599.79490 | 01:32:57 | 77° 06' 09'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 77.1025 | 0.4503 | 75.5235 |
| 83 | 0494-11-01 18:58:26 | 1901796.16560 | 01:36:01 | 75° 17' 49'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 75.2969 | 1.8056 | 75.5228 |
| 84 | 0476-03-17 14:47:01 | 1894992.99100 | 01:39:03 | 76° 19' 41'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 76.3281 | -1.0311 | 75.6313 |
| 85 | 0457-08-01 20:20:46 | 1888190.22280 | 01:42:07 | 79° 08' 29'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 79.1414 | -2.8133 | 76.2050 |
| 86 | 0438-12-16 23:32:02 | 1881387.35560 | 01:45:12 | 78° 06' 29'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 78.1081 | 1.0333 | 76.6126 |
| 87 | 0420-05-02 01:51:21 | 1874584.45230 | 01:48:17 | 76° 08' 51'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 76.1475 | 1.9606 | 76.5413 |
| 88 | 0401-09-16 10:10:38 | 1867781.79900 | 01:51:22 | 77° 41' 37'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 77.6936 | -1.5461 | 76.6933 |
| 89 | 0383-01-31 14:42:28 | 1860978.98780 | 01:54:27 | 79° 41' 45'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 79.6958 | -2.0022 | 77.2473 |
| 90 | 0364-06-16 05:39:34 | 1854175.61080 | 01:57:31 | 79° 00' 20'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 79.0056 | 0.6903 | 77.6072 |
| 91 | 0345-10-30 16:51:08 | 1847372.07720 | 02:00:34 | 77° 24' 06'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 77.4017 | 1.6039 | 77.5921 |
| 92 | 0327-03-16 12:20:58 | 1840568.88960 | 02:03:36 | 78° 35' 42'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 78.5950 | -1.1933 | 77.7414 |
| 93 | 0308-07-30 12:00:39 | 1833765.87550 | 02:06:38 | 81° 04' 43'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 81.0786 | -2.4836 | 78.3195 |
| 94 | 0289-12-14 07:43:59 | 1826962.69720 | 02:09:38 | 79° 49' 59'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 79.8331 | 1.2456 | 78.6700 |
| 95 | 0271-04-30 04:57:46 | 1820159.58180 | 02:12:38 | 78° 18' 44'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 78.3122 | 1.5208 | 78.5871 |
| 96 | 0252-09-13 12:40:40 | 1813356.90320 | 02:15:37 | 80° 18' 10'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 80.3028 | -1.9906 | 78.8066 |
| 97 | 0234-01-28 21:16:30 | 1806554.26150 | 02:18:35 | 81° 49' 37'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 81.8269 | -1.5242 | 79.3745 |
| 98 | 0215-06-14 19:44:56 | 1799751.19790 | 02:21:33 | 80° 40' 01'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 80.6669 | 1.1600 | 79.6719 |
| 99 | 0196-10-28 15:17:51 | 1792948.01240 | 02:24:31 | 79° 21' 35'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 79.3597 | 1.3072 | 79.6383 |
| 100 | 0178-03-14 15:11:03 | 1786145.00770 | 02:27:28 | 80° 55' 24'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 80.9233 | -1.5636 | 79.8300 |
| 101 | 0159-07-29 11:01:58 | 1779341.83470 | 02:30:26 | 83° 05' 26'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 83.0906 | -2.1672 | 80.3989 |
| 102 | 0140-12-11 23:00:15 | 1772538.33350 | 02:33:24 | 81° 29' 42'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 81.4950 | 1.5956 | 80.6889 |
| 103 | 0122-04-27 13:00:08 | 1765734.91680 | 02:36:22 | 80° 20' 10'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 80.3361 | 1.1589 | 80.6147 |
| 104 | 0103-09-11 15:50:14 | 1758932.03490 | 02:39:21 | 82° 53' 53'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 82.8981 | -2.5619 | 80.9212 |
| 105 | 0085-01-26 00:00:25 | 1752129.37530 | 02:42:21 | 84° 06' 25'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 84.1069 | -1.2089 | 81.5006 |
| 106 | 0066-06-12 02:51:35 | 1745326.49420 | 02:45:23 | 82° 27' 19'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 82.4553 | 1.6517 | 81.7159 |
| 107 | 0047-10-27 05:52:42 | 1738523.61990 | 02:48:26 | 81° 18' 33'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 81.3092 | 1.1461 | 81.6641 |
| 108 | 0029-03-12 11:50:35 | 1731720.86850 | 02:51:30 | 83° 11' 47'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 83.1964 | -1.8872 | 81.9171 |
| 109 | 0010-07-27 08:40:55 | 1724917.73670 | 02:54:37 | 85° 12' 26'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 85.2072 | -2.0108 | 82.5018 |
| 110 | -0009-12-10 18:50:30 | 1718114.16010 | 02:57:46 | 83° 25' 50'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 83.4306 | 1.7767 | 82.7525 |
| 111 | -0027-04-25 06:37:52 | 1711310.65130 | 03:00:57 | 82° 26' 26'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 82.4406 | 0.9900 | 82.6875 |
| 112 | -0046-09-09 05:19:30 | 1704507.59690 | 03:04:11 | 85° 11' 29'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 85.1914 | -2.7508 | 83.0572 |
| 113 | -0064-01-24 08:00:02 | 1697704.70840 | 03:07:28 | 86° 09' 10'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 86.1528 | -0.9614 | 83.6388 |
| 114 | -0083-06-09 07:15:11 | 1690901.67720 | 03:10:47 | 84° 24' 45'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 84.4125 | 1.7403 | 83.7903 |
| 115 | -0102-10-24 10:45:32 | 1684098.82330 | 03:14:11 | 83° 38' 50'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 83.6472 | 0.7653 | 83.7443 |
| 116 | -0120-03-09 20:34:50 | 1677296.23250 | 03:17:37 | 85° 35' 47'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 85.5964 | -1.9492 | 84.0584 |
| 117 | -0139-07-24 22:44:39 | 1670493.32270 | 03:21:08 | 87° 07' 44'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 87.1289 | -1.5325 | 84.6404 |
| 118 | -0158-12-08 14:21:14 | 1663689.97310 | 03:24:42 | 85° 17' 07'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 85.2853 | 1.8436 | 84.8493 |
| 119 | -0176-04-23 07:03:01 | 1656886.66880 | 03:28:21 | 84° 40' 01'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 84.6669 | 0.6183 | 84.7953 |
| 120 | -0195-09-07 05:26:35 | 1650083.60180 | 03:32:03 | 87° 26' 15'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 87.4375 | -2.7706 | 85.1959 |
| 121 | -0213-01-22 01:06:33 | 1643280.42120 | 03:35:51 | 87° 56' 42'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 87.9450 | -0.5075 | 85.7464 |
| 122 | -0232-06-06 15:36:03 | 1636477.02500 | 03:39:42 | 86° 10' 22'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 86.1728 | 1.7722 | 85.8445 |
| 123 | -0251-10-21 13:12:57 | 1629673.92570 | 03:43:39 | 86° 05' 03'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 86.0842 | 0.0886 | 85.8377 |
| 124 | -0269-03-07 22:13:00 | 1622871.30070 | 03:47:41 | 88° 13' 36'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 88.2267 | -2.1425 | 86.2191 |
| 125 | -0288-07-22 04:56:47 | 1616068.58110 | 03:51:48 | 89° 04' 01'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 89.0669 | -0.8403 | 86.7611 |
| 126 | -0307-12-06 04:18:47 | 1609265.55470 | 03:56:01 | 86° 57' 25'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 86.9569 | 2.1100 | 86.8971 |
| 127 | -0325-04-22 05:16:34 | 1602462.59480 | 04:00:20 | 86° 45' 41'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 86.7614 | 0.1956 | 86.8604 |
| 128 | -0344-09-05 06:56:01 | 1595659.66390 | 04:04:45 | 89° 46' 16'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 89.7711 | -3.0097 | 87.3089 |
| 129 | -0362-01-19 22:53:49 | 1588856.32900 | 04:09:16 | 89° 55' 46'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 89.9294 | -0.1583 | 87.8352 |
| 130 | -0381-06-05 07:14:33 | 1582052.67680 | 04:13:54 | 88° 00' 10'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 88.0028 | 1.9267 | 87.8917 |
| 131 | -0400-10-18 23:00:56 | 1575249.33400 | 04:18:39 | 88° 21' 39'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 88.3608 | -0.3581 | 87.9333 |
| 132 | -0418-03-05 03:36:19 | 1568446.52520 | 04:23:31 | 90° 42' 51'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 90.7142 | -2.3533 | 88.3874 |
| 133 | -0437-07-20 08:49:16 | 1561643.74260 | 04:28:31 | 91° 08' 13'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 91.1369 | -0.4228 | 88.8927 |
| 134 | -0456-12-03 10:45:49 | 1554840.82350 | 04:33:40 | 88° 53' 15'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 88.8875 | 2.2494 | 88.9588 |
| 135 | -0474-04-19 17:07:44 | 1548038.08870 | 04:38:58 | 88° 58' 37'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 88.9769 | -0.0894 | 88.9498 |
| 136 | -0493-09-03 23:46:05 | 1541235.36530 | 04:44:26 | 92° 01' 19'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 92.0219 | -3.0450 | 89.4563 |
| 137 | -0511-01-17 18:07:10 | 1534432.13000 | 04:49:27 | 91° 57' 10'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 91.9528 | 0.0692 | 89.9754 |
| 138 | -0530-06-03 04:08:35 | 1527628.54760 | 04:54:06 | 90° 02' 58'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 90.0494 | 1.9033 | 90.0033 |
| 139 | -0549-10-17 19:58:34 | 1520825.20730 | 04:58:47 | 90° 40' 53'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 90.6814 | -0.6319 | 90.0785 |
| 140 | -0567-03-02 20:03:28 | 1514022.21070 | 05:03:30 | 92° 52' 09'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 92.8692 | -2.1878 | 90.5651 |
| 141 | -0586-07-17 17:44:42 | 1507219.11440 | 05:08:16 | 92° 57' 22'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 92.9561 | -0.0869 | 91.0246 |
| 142 | -0605-12-01 14:34:28 | 1500415.98230 | 05:13:04 | 90° 56' 55'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 90.9486 | 2.0075 | 91.0481 |
| 143 | -0623-04-16 19:55:06 | 1493613.20490 | 05:17:54 | 91° 33' 01'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 91.5503 | -0.6017 | 91.0894 |
| 144 | -0642-09-01 06:03:17 | 1486810.62730 | 05:22:46 | 94° 20' 16'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 94.3378 | -2.7875 | 91.6344 |
| 145 | -0660-01-16 06:38:53 | 1480007.65200 | 05:27:41 | 93° 43' 59'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 93.7331 | 0.6047 | 92.1101 |
| 146 | -0679-06-01 00:41:58 | 1473204.40410 | 05:32:37 | 91° 57' 17'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 91.9547 | 1.7783 | 92.1033 |
| 147 | -0698-10-15 22:27:52 | 1466401.31100 | 05:37:36 | 93° 02' 13'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 93.0369 | -1.0822 | 92.2118 |
| 148 | -0716-02-29 20:40:08 | 1459598.23620 | 05:42:37 | 95° 04' 35'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 95.0764 | -2.0394 | 92.7144 |
| 149 | -0735-07-15 10:11:45 | 1452794.79980 | 05:47:41 | 94° 41' 12'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 94.6867 | 0.3897 | 93.1150 |
| 150 | -0754-11-28 23:05:05 | 1445991.33690 | 05:52:47 | 92° 51' 30'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 92.8583 | 1.8283 | 93.1139 |
| 151 | -0772-04-13 23:08:40 | 1439188.33930 | 05:57:54 | 94° 06' 42'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 94.1117 | -1.2533 | 93.2294 |
| 152 | -0791-08-29 08:15:05 | 1432385.71880 | 06:03:04 | 96° 47' 23'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 96.7897 | -2.6781 | 93.8136 |
| 153 | -0809-01-13 12:36:22 | 1425582.90030 | 06:08:17 | 95° 36' 24'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 95.6067 | 1.1831 | 94.2192 |
| 154 | -0828-05-29 14:07:03 | 1418779.96320 | 06:13:31 | 93° 48' 50'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 93.8139 | 1.7928 | 94.1668 |
| 155 | -0847-10-13 19:20:37 | 1411977.18100 | 06:18:48 | 95° 18' 50'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 95.3139 | -1.5000 | 94.3249 |
| 156 | -0865-02-27 19:32:16 | 1405174.18910 | 06:24:07 | 97° 22' 42'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 97.3783 | -2.0644 | 94.8673 |
| 157 | -0884-07-13 06:29:40 | 1398370.64560 | 06:29:28 | 96° 40' 04'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 96.6678 | 0.7106 | 95.2303 |
| 158 | -0903-11-26 16:02:14 | 1391567.04320 | 06:34:51 | 94° 55' 30'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 94.9250 | 1.7428 | 95.2152 |
| 159 | -0921-04-12 12:10:44 | 1384763.88250 | 06:40:17 | 96° 27' 39'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 96.4608 | -1.5358 | 95.3926 |
| 160 | -0940-08-26 16:05:27 | 1377961.04550 | 06:45:45 | 99° 00' 17'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 99.0047 | -2.5439 | 96.0073 |
| 161 | -0958-01-10 17:13:54 | 1371158.09300 | 06:51:15 | 97° 35' 15'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 97.5875 | 1.4172 | 96.3548 |
| 162 | -0977-05-27 19:08:36 | 1364355.17260 | 06:56:47 | 96° 01' 18'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 96.0217 | 1.5658 | 96.2780 |
| 163 | -0996-10-11 04:17:35 | 1357552.55390 | 07:02:22 | 97° 46' 51'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 97.7808 | -1.7592 | 96.4954 |
| 164 | -1014-02-25 09:17:09 | 1350749.76190 | 07:07:58 | 99° 31' 05'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 99.5181 | -1.7372 | 97.0659 |
| 165 | -1033-07-12 01:11:00 | 1343946.42430 | 07:13:37 | 98° 34' 01'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 98.5669 | 0.9511 | 97.3912 |
| 166 | -1052-11-24 15:00:43 | 1337143.00050 | 07:19:18 | 97° 06' 53'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 97.1147 | 1.4522 | 97.3648 |
| 167 | -1070-04-10 11:58:44 | 1330339.87410 | 07:25:02 | 98° 49' 05'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 98.8181 | -1.7033 | 97.5798 |
| 168 | -1089-08-25 09:48:17 | 1323536.78350 | 07:30:47 | 100° 56' 31'' | -0° 00' 00'' | 100.9419 | -2.1239 | 98.1815 |
These can be verified by NASA - JPL Horizons System. The results differ by around 6 minutes (difference probably due to NASA use of DE441).
- * indicates future predictions have been used to calculate average.
- Pink & amber cells indicate deviation from pattern
- Red cells indicate serious deviation from pattern
- Amber border indicate nodal period contains Ptolemy eclipse
- Red text indicates excessive lunar node movement
Image credit: F Richard Stephenson: Historical eclipses and Earth's rotation (highlights added)
In the above image, deviation from the nodal patterns have been highlighted in pink and red to match the table above. The chart only goes back as far as 810 BC. What is evident from the above image is that priority is given to the modern day dating of ancient eclipses, rather than where they naturally fit.
For those interested in facts; In the lunar nodal period table above, rows 1-23 is data based on information gathered using telescopes and satellites, which is much more reliable than ancient methods. This dataset could be considered "a thing that is known or proved to be true" or factual. The pattern of this factual information can be seen over a 989 year period down to 1034 AD. The period that deviates from this pattern the most, contain Ptolemy's eclipses (indicated by an amber border) which is a primary source for dating the period. If these eclipses cannot conform to an established factual pattern, surely this would indicate that they are not in the correct place. Some of these eclipses must be the empirical observations referred to by Fred Espenak on NASA eclipse site. These are based on observation, rather than theory, or in other words they have been made to fit. The pattern must be important because it it restored at row 161.
What Difference Does a Degree Make?
The easiest way to see the effects of a seemingly small difference in moon position, is to consider the solar eclipse in April 136BC used by Stephenson. The image below shows the path of the eclipse with ΔT set to zero.
Image credit: F Richard Stephenson (2003): Historical eclipses and Earth's rotation
This is what the eclipse would have looked like in Babylon with ΔT = 0
SE-136BC A
- Moon: Ecliptic L: +21°31'45" B:+00°28'07"
- ΔT: 0
By adjusting Earth rotation by 12,025 seconds the solar eclipse can be made to fit as described
SE-136BC B
- Moon: Ecliptic L: +21°31'24" B:-00°00'52"
- ΔT: 12025.35s ( 03h20m25.35s )
This is the difference that ΔT makes
SE-136BC C
- Moon: Ecliptic L: +19°27'14" B:-00°12'19"
- ΔT: 0
- Degree difference between SE-136BC B & C: 2.075°, 02°04'31" (almost 1 cubit)
Whilst Stephenson is specifically discussing ΔT, the effects would be similar if the lunar nodes were manipulated by a degree or so.
Image credit: F Richard Stephenson: Historical eclipses and Earth's rotation (highlights added)
We have reused the above image to illustrate where the solar eclipse of April 136 BC (-135) lies in relation to the pattern of the nodal periods
Notice how a 1° lunar node position makes a difference to the path of the moon.
We have considered two ways the moon and earth can be manipulated using ΔT and the position of the lunar nodes, to make eclipses fit the ancient descriptions. Neither of these methods affect the length of the lunar cycle. We simulated what would happen if the nodal period pattern (Table 1) continued uninterrupted, using several methods. The results varied between and 1° and 4°+ difference.